The market fluctuated after opening high last week, with an average daily turnover of more than 950 billion; in style, the market capitalization style is relatively balanced; value is better than growth. In terms of industry performance, agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishing, national defense, military industry, building materials and other industries are at the top, while computers, communications, and media are lagging behind.
The economy continues to recover weakly, and multi-land real estate policies are in force.
Looking back last week, macro data show that exports are still improving, while various localities have introduced them one after another.BaccaratcrownThe real estate policy also catalyzed the performance of the real estate sector in the second half of the week, but the social finance data released after Friday's trading was significantly lower than market expectations or had an impact on the follow-up market style. Specifically,Baccaratcrown:
In terms of export data, exports are still improving, both the year-on-year growth rate and the two-year compound growth rate. Among them, led by US real estate sales, post-cyclical demand continued to improve and exports to Europe and the United States rebounded at the bottom; ASEAN demand for domestic equipment and consumer electronics components also continued, providing export flexibility.
In terms of inflation data, CPI was slightly higher than expected and PPI was lower than expected in April. Since the beginning of this year, the core CPI price increase model has been fixed, and the current drag on CPI lies in the prices of services such as housing and consumer durables, so it is difficult to see fundamental changes in the short term, and the follow-up performance of the core CPI may be relatively flat. PPI prices, which continue to fall from the previous month, show that the pattern in which industrial demand is weaker than supply remains unchanged.
The newly released social finance data is much lower than expected, social integration negative growth, M1 year-on-year growth turned negative. Judging from the data, weak new housing transactions may be a drag on M1 year-on-year growth, net government debt repayment is a direct drag on social finance growth, residents' weak willingness to buy houses depresses residents' medium-and long-term credit, and the impulse of corporate bills is obvious. There is no obvious risk at the macro level in the short term, but the fermentation of social integration data may lead the market to return to defensive style.
In terms of real estate policy, Hangzhou and Xi'an have completely abolished purchase restrictions, and Beijing, Shenzhen, Nanjing and other places have once again launched a new policy on the property market. At present, in addition to first-tier cities, the return to normalization of second-tier cities is nearing completion. Overall, first-tier cities are unlikely to lift purchase restrictions in a comprehensive, across-the-board and indiscriminate manner, but trading in old ones for new ones, relaxing the identification standards for second homes and non-ordinary houses, and further reducing taxes and fees in transaction links are all possible adjustment directions.
Overseas loose expectations are increased, focusing on the repair process of domestic demand.
Looking back, the market rises to the current stage, the expectation that it will continue to rise sharply will decline, the market style may return from the offensive to the defensive stage, and the market value may be more dominant. In mid-to-late May, we will continue to pay attention to three macro main lines: overseas interest rate cuts are expected to rise, domestic economic demand repair is weak, and domestic economic repair still needs to be driven by external demand. The specific analysis is as follows:
In overseas markets, expectations of interest rate cuts continued last week. Judging from economic data, the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States unexpectedly rebounded last week, and the cooling signal of the job market led to a rise in expectations of interest rate cuts. At the same time, looking at a broader scope, the recent frequent release of interest rate cut dove signals in Europe has also made the expected rebound in global equity assets sustainable. This week, we need to keep an eye on the upcoming US CPI data for April, the market is still very sticky to inflation expectations, and we need to guard against the fact that the inflation data exceed expectations, which may cause the market to fall back in expectations of interest rate cuts.
From the perspective of the domestic economy, it is the consensus of the market that economic repair depends more on external demand, and the divergence lies in the repair process of domestic demand. At present, the overall macroeconomic growth rate is not weak, and the industries with advantages in aggregate growth and structural growth continue to repair, but the data on social integration and inflation also show that the macro-economy is still in a weak situation, and the repair of domestic demand remains weak. it is necessary to dialectically look at the obvious differentiation between hot and cold economic data.
Periodic weak social integration data may lower the expectation that the market will continue to rise, and the market style is likely to return from technology growth attack to high dividend defense. From the policy point of view, the landing of special treasury bonds in the second quarter may accelerate, and the matching central bank reserve reduction policy may also fall to the ground. The central bank's interest rate reduction space is currently limited by exchange rate pressure, but this year's interest rate cut is still a high probability event. In addition, in the current pressure of domestic demand, local real estate policies continue to relax, but short-term stimulus does not mean that it can change the long-term trend in the future, we still need to continue to pay attention to changes in residents' expectations.
Pay attention to the sustainable development plate and guard against the industrial competition between China and the United States
During the performance vacuum period in May, we believe that the investment directions that need to be focused on at present include stable ROE with high dividends, high prosperity at sea, resource products and precious metals, and the main line of performance expected improvement (pig farming, construction machinery, basic chemical industry, consumer electronics, etc.) and other sectors of sustainable development.
What needs to be reminded is that the election in the United States may give rise to problems of industrial competition between China and the United States, such as the "new three" of new energy or trade pressure, so we should be vigilant against the relevant industrial chains. In addition, the real estate sector as a whole is still in the stage of game policy, which does not have a strong performance-to-price ratio at present.
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