Source: Jianghan Vision
In recent years, the development of the liquor market has affected everyone's heart. recently, the topic of liquor inventory reaching a new high has triggered a heated discussion in the market. in the face of the high liquor inventory, people can't help but wonder whether this liquor can't sell or is there something else?Coraltrout? What should we think of the market performance of spirits?
First, liquor inventory hit a new high?
According to the 21st Century Economic report, the 2023 reports of listed liquor companies have all been published. According to the statistics of the 21st Century Economic report, 21 A-share liquor listed companies have at least 45% of the finished wine inventory in 2023.Coraltrout.70 million kiloliters, a decrease of 5 percent over the same period last year; the inventory of semi-finished wine was at least 3.167 million kiloliters, an increase of 8 percent over the same period last year; and the total inventory exceeded 3.62 million kiloliters, a new high. The inventory of liquor stocks also hit a new high. At the end of 2023, the total inventory of 22 A-share and Hong Kong stock listed companies reached 155.8 billion yuan, of which the inventory balance of Guizhou Moutai exceeded 46.4 billion yuan.
Hundreds of billions of inventory can not be understood as unsalable products. Different from other consumer goods, liquor does not have a shelf life. On the contrary, with the increase of storage time, the volatile sulfides and aldehydes in the liquor decrease, the taste and flavor are better, the wine body is softer and more harmonious, and the liquor quality is finally improved.
The question is, how do investors judge the value of base liquor in inventory? How can we know that what is growing in inventory is high-quality old wine, not low-end base wine? The 21st Century Economic report analyzed in detail the inventory composition of all liquor stocks from 2020 to 2023, and compared it with the inventory of semi-finished spirits in the corresponding years: the base spirit of most spirits has increased in value in the past three years, but there is a huge gap in growth. famous wines still have a faster increase in unit value.
Must the more base wine be equal to the better? With the same base wine, it is not necessarily of the same quality. It is not advisable to judge the base liquor value of different liquor enterprises by aroma type. Liquor is not stored for as long as possible.
Second, is liquor no longer available, or is there something else?
As an important carrier of Chinese traditional culture, liquor has always carried profound cultural heritage and consumers' emotional sustenance. However, the recent phenomenon of record high inventory in the liquor industry has aroused widespread concern in the market. What kind of truth lies behind this phenomenon? Is the market saturation leading to weak liquor sales, or are companies deliberately doing it out of some strategic considerations?
First, in general, the increase in corporate inventory is often seen as a sign of poor sales. Because the inventory backlog means that the product is not converted into cash flow in time, which may lead to poor cash flow, rising operating costs and other problems. However, for the liquor industry, the phenomenon of new high inventory does not fully apply to this logic. As the liquor has the characteristics of getting better and better with aging, many liquor companies will choose to store some of their products in the wine cellar to improve the quality and value of the liquor through aging for a long time. Therefore, the increase of liquor inventory to a certain extent reflects the confidence of enterprises in the future market and the strategic layout of long-term development.
Secondly, the liquor industry has a long history of liquor storage habits. On the one hand, as a special consumer product, the quality and value of liquor depend to a large extent on the storage time. Old wine often has a higher taste and collection value, so it has become the object sought after by consumers. On the other hand, the liquor market has strong regional and brand effect. Some well-known wine enterprises occupy a leading position in the market by virtue of their unique wine-making technology and brand influence. These wine enterprises maintain the scarcity and uniqueness of their products by storing wine, so as to maintain their brand image and market position.
Third, the brewing process of liquor is complex and long, in which the quality of base liquor plays a decisive role in the taste and quality of the final product. Therefore, many liquor companies will store a large amount of base liquor in advance to ensure the stability of future production and the controllability of product quality. In addition, with the continuous improvement of consumers' requirements for liquor quality, bartenders need to finely control the proportion and proportion of various raw materials in the brewing process. The richness of the base liquor reserve provides bartenders with more options and possibilities to help them adjust their product formulations according to market demand and changes in consumer tastes.
Fourth, from the perspective of long-term development, the increase of liquor inventory is not a simple problem of weak sales, but the prediction and layout of liquor enterprises for future market trends and consumer demand. In the current environment of consumption upgrading and increasingly fierce market competition, wine enterprises need to pay more attention to product quality and differential competition. Keeping the scarcity and uniqueness of the product by storing wine will help to enhance the brand image and market competitiveness. At the same time, the richness of the base liquor reserve also provides a strong support for the future product research and innovation of wine enterprises.
It is worth noting, however, that not all wine companies are suitable for wine storage. Because wine storage needs to take up a lot of funds and venue resources, it may be difficult for wine enterprises with small scale and weak financial strength to bear. In addition, wine storage also requires a high level of technology and management to ensure product quality and safety. Therefore, on the issue of wine storage, wine enterprises need to formulate a reasonable inventory strategy according to their own actual situation and market demand.
Therefore, another record high in liquor inventory does not simply mean that the product is "unsalable". This phenomenon reflects the particularity of the liquor industry and the diversification strategy of enterprises in the market competition. For consumers, this may mean that there will be more high-quality old wines to choose from, while for wine companies, how to maintain product quality while effectively managing inventory will be an important challenge.