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◎ reporter Zhao Mingchao
In the past two years, the photovoltaic plate fluctuated downward. Stimulated by the good news of the policy, the photovoltaic plate rebounded strongly on May 22, but encountered adjustment the next day. Vibrate violently at the bottomMinecraftcryptoUnder the situation, how to interpret the future of the photovoltaic plate? From an institutional point of view, with the gradual landing of favorable policies, industry inventory is expected to accelerate clearance, prices are also expected to rebound, optimistic about photovoltaic plate stabilization and repair market.
On May 22, stimulated by positive policies, the photovoltaic sector performed strongly, and the photovoltaic industry index rose nearly 5%.
Combing through the information, it can be found that on the afternoon of May 17, under the guidance of the Electronic Information Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the China Photovoltaic Industry Association organized a "Symposium on High-quality Development of Photovoltaic Industry" in Beijing. Photovoltaic enterprises and related units such as Trina Solar Energy, Xiexin Technology, Jingke Energy, Longji Green Energy, Tongwei shares, Daquan Energy, Energy Research Institute of National Development and Reform Commission, National Development Bank, Industrial Bank and other photovoltaic enterprises and related units attended the meeting.
The first quarterly report of listed companies in 2024 shows that the performance of a number of head photovoltaic listed companies is under pressure, and the operating situation of second-and third-line photovoltaic enterprises is more severe. The purpose of this meeting is to explore the current problems and reasons faced by the photovoltaic industry as well as the corresponding measures, so as to guide the orderly development of the industry.
"judging from the strong performance of the market after the official disclosure of the news, the decline of the photovoltaic sector has basically come to an end, at least from the perspective of the chip structure, investors who are not optimistic have basically left the market. Next, with the gradual landing of favorable policies, the photovoltaic plate will enter a state of consolidation and recovery. " An analysis of a private equity fund manager in Shanghai.
How to look at the future opportunities of the photovoltaic sector, institutions generally believe that if the policy strongly promotes supply-side reform, the industry is expected to usher in a round of repair market.
Huaxia Fund said that the photovoltaic sector has been weak for two years in a row, mainly due to intensified competition within the industry. The meeting held on May 17 is aimed at dealing with the excessive "inner volume" of the industry and the decline in the price of the industrial chain, and the government hopes to guide the industry to develop in a positive direction. crack down on vicious competition.
In the view of Huaxia Fund, from the point of view of the supply and demand of the photovoltaic industry, the demand side is relatively stable, and the trend of steady growth of demand for the whole year remains unchanged; while on the supply side, with the active clearing of the industry, corporate profits are expected to usher in a bottom rise. Any marginal change at the bottom of the industry is likely to cause the market to react in advance, raising valuations first and then profits, which could eventually lead to a double rise in valuations and earnings.
From the perspective of the industrial chain, Huaxia Fund believes that the rapid bottoming out of silicon prices in the near future is expected to weaken the game of the industrial chain, terminal demand is expected to release, emerging market demand will also be released. Thanks to lower prices of components, higher grid-connected photovoltaic prices and the subsidy scheme for household photovoltaic in India, distributed demand is expected to increase.
Tianhong Fund said that from the market performance on May 22, the photovoltaic construction integration sector led the increase in the photovoltaic related sub-industries, indicating that the market of the photovoltaic industry was boosted by the market of the real estate industry. The recent bright performance of the real estate industry is the photovoltaic industry empowerment. From the perspective of photovoltaic enterprises, a number of head photovoltaic companies disclose sufficient orders, which will support the further rise of the prosperity of the industry.
For investment opportunities in various photovoltaic sectors, Yi Fangda Fund said that China's photovoltaic installation and module exports are growing, but the profits of the main materials are under pressure, and the overall industry opportunities may not appear until the competition pattern improves. Correspondingly, the revenue growth rate of auxiliary materials is faster than the same period last year, and the profit trend in the direction of glass, plastic film and bracket is improving, which is worth paying attention to.