Individuals and enterprises are actively looking for deposit substitution.PinballxThe recent withdrawal of the net worth of some financial products belongs to normal ups and downs.
The scale of financial management picked up again in April.
Data show that the size of the financial management market increased by about 2 trillion yuan in April compared with the previous month. According to industry insiders, the impact of the reduction in bank deposit interest rates has gradually emerged, and many corporate and personal funds have been transferred to financial management. However, the newly added 2 trillion yuan financial management market is experiencing net worth fluctuations. In this case, can the financial management scale continue to grow in the future?Pinballx?
The scale of financial management supported by deposits rebounded.
After nearly half a year of continuous decline, the scale of bank financial management ushered in an increase. According to statistics from Citic Securities Research Department, the size of wealth management products in the whole market increased by about 2 trillion yuan month-on-month in April to 28.Pinballx.63 trillion yuan
The month-on-month growth rate reached 8%.Pinballx.74%.
Judging from the weekly performance, the size of the financial management market surged month-on-month in the first week of April, to 1.61 trillion yuan, and continued to decline in the second and third weeks, but the amount of growth remained at the level of 100 billion yuan, and the existing scale was 179 billion yuan and 168.3 billion yuan, respectively. The growth rate dropped significantly in the last week, with a new scale of 109 billion yuan.
From the point of view of people in the industry, the record high scale of financial management is the result of the continuation of the momentum of "deposit relocation" and the comparative advantage of the rate of return in the low-interest environment. Wang Yifeng, a banking analyst at Everbright Securities (rights protection), pointed out that since the beginning of this year, high-interest deposits formed by means of shell insurance management and manual interest payment have been restricted successively, resulting in the "disintermediation" power of deposits. Funds invested in deposit products have moved to financial management.
The chief economist of Citic Securities clearly believes that there are three major reasons behind the rebound in the scale of bank financial management. First of all, the continued outstanding financial income attracts investors, secondly, the impact of deposit interest rate reduction gradually appears, and finally, after the manual interest rate is limited, a lot of funds pour into financial management.
Since the beginning of this year, the bond bull market has also supported the performance of financial returns, promoting the growth of financial management scale under the comparative advantage. According to the reporter's observation, after three consecutive cuts in listing interest rates in 2023 and the "downward adjustment" of deposit products followed by small and medium-sized banks this year, the yield level has fallen to an all-time low, and the interest rates on deposit products in the market for three-and five-year deposits are less than 2.5% and below for one-year and lower deposit products to below 2%.
In comparison, the rate of return of financial products with the same maturity has a comparative advantage. According to the data provided by Puyi Standard, a third-party statistical organization, by the end of April, the average performance benchmark of 2523 newly issued wealth management products in the market was 3.05%, and that of closed fixed income products was 3.15%. The mixed category reached 3.57%.
From the final performance of the product, financial products are also better than the deposit yield performance. By the end of April, the average annualized rate of return of closed-end fixed-income financial products in the market had reached 4.08% in the past one month, and 4.39%, 4.52% and 3.96% in the past three months, six months and one year, respectively.
The reporter learned that in the face of persistently low deposit rates, many residents have studied bank wealth management products. "in March, I bought a fixed-income financial product issued by a wealth management company under the state-owned bank, and the rate of return reached 4.8% last month." The beluga whale (a pseudonym) who lives in Hangzhou told the reporter.
In addition to residents, many enterprises are also increasing the number of financial products purchased. According to incomplete statistics of Wind data and public announcements of listed companies, the scale of deposit products subscribed by listed companies so far this year is about 106.9 billion yuan, accounting for about 65.5% of the total investment and financial management scale, compared with about 84.49% last year. At the same time, the subscription scale of listed companies for wealth management products is on the rise. since the beginning of this year, listed companies have bought 15.416 billion yuan of bank wealth management products, accounting for about 9.45%, compared with about 7.4% in the same period last year, a slight increase of 2 percentage points.
The financial managers of a number of stock banks and city commercial banks also told reporters that recently, regulation has reduced the interest rates of deposit products by banning manual interest payments and standardizing notification deposits. Most of the main customers of these high-interest products are enterprises. After this kind of products are restricted and rectified, many public customers choose to put their money into financial management products, "forming a support for the return of deposits."
Break 30 trillion yuan?
Compared with low-interest deposits, the scale of the financial management market can regain the upward trend, relying on its advantages of small fluctuation, strong flexibility and relatively high yield, but the fluctuation of financial net worth worries many investors. Moby Dick told reporters that there are still several R2 risk-rated wealth management products on hand, and their net worth has fluctuated somewhat unexpectedly recently. They have withdrawn for five trading days in a row, with a cumulative decline of about 0.12%. The investment cost of 200000 yuan can lose more than 100 yuan a day.
However, in the eyes of industry insiders, the recent withdrawal of the net worth of some products belongs to normal ups and downs. The head of the financial market department of a joint-stock bank told reporters that the recent net retracement of some products is closely related to the volatility of the bond market and can be regarded as a phased adjustment, which is essentially a pullback of underlying assets, especially long-term bonds, in the case of a sharp rise in the previous period, and belongs to the normal extent of asset withdrawal, so there is no need to worry excessively.
Mingming also believes that although long-term bond market interest rates fell back at the end of April, they have not yet affected financial management, and the clean-up rate is still low. He expects that the scale of financial management will remain at a high level in May, and even if there is a sharp seasonal correction in June, it is expected to remain at around 28 trillion yuan, and is expected to stand at a high of 30 trillion yuan in the second half of the year.
Since the beginning of the year, many people in the industry have predicted that the financial management market will rise again this year, reaching an increase of 30 trillion yuan. Industry insiders believe that this figure is still supported by optimistic factors. Wang Yifeng believes that there is still a lot of room for deposit "disintermediation" and transfer to financial management, and the possibility of further reduction in deposit listing interest rates in the future will not be ruled out. If interest rates are reduced centrally, it may prompt enterprises or institutions to also enter the money market for demand deposits, thus creating purchasing power for financial management or other non-silver products.
Mingming further explained that it is still necessary for commercial banks to cut deposit rates under the pressure of interest spreads, while local governments' demand for debt reduction needs to be supported by a low interest rate environment, while the repair of financing needs in the real economy is subject to high real interest rates. This meeting of the Politburo mentioned interest rate cuts and cost reduction targets, and it is expected that follow-up deposits and MLF interest rate reduction operations are possible. Taking into account the demand for the stability of the RMB currency, the timing of the MLF interest rate cut may remain to be seen. From the annual dimension, the MLF interest rate may have room for reduction around 20BP.
In addition to the acceleration of "deposit relocation" in a low interest rate environment is expected to bring sustained incremental funds to the financial market, the thickening income strategy of the extended period of financial management is also emerging, which is expected to bring new growth space for financial management. Industry insiders pointed out that in terms of term allocation, the financial planner further reversed the short-term strategy of selling long-term and buying short-term credit bonds in April, and interest rate bonds gradually began to require long-term returns.
Liu Yu, chief economist of Huaxi Securities, believes that since the beginning of this year, with the stricter supervision of public deposit business, the investment mode of financial channel deposits may be restricted, and more of the new scale has returned to bond market investment. this also means that bank financial management will have a significantly higher say on the pricing of the credit debt market. At the same time, the current channel demand for financial investment is still strong, so financial management and its various asset management accounts may become an important marginal force for short-term buying.
However, there are also insiders in the industry to remind the market operation risk. "with the rapid increase in the scale of financial management, we are also faced with the pressure of underallocation brought about by the limited allocation of high-interest deposits and the contradiction between supply and demand of bonds." Dong Wenxin, an analyst at Everbright Securities, pointed out that fixed-income financial products with higher scale growth in April significantly enhanced the allocation of medium and short debt bases. However, the current large-scale allocation of medium-and short-end debt base in financial management will also lead to an increase in the congestion of short-and medium-end securities transactions, bond yields are at historical lows, and the expected game between public funds and financial management may increase the potential volatility risk of the market. to breed the potential risk of negative circulation.