Main points of investmentJpjbingoInvestment strategy: in terms of thermal coal, the safety inspection of the producing area is relatively strict, the output maintains a relatively low level, the producing market is relatively active, the coal price of the producing area increases month-on-week, and the market price sentiment is high. 2. In terms of ports, 1) with the end of spring maintenance of Daqin Line, coal transportation began to resume, and the weekly coal transfer volume around Bohai Port was 13.18 million tons, with a weekly ratio of + 1.Jpjbingo.63%. 2) Total coal inventory around Bohai Port this week 2Jpjbingo, 3.78 million tons, month-on-week ratio + 3.83% / year-on-year-15.61%. Affected by the expectation of meeting the peak and spending the summer, the enthusiasm of traders to replenish the stock has increased. 3. Downstream, 1) affected by the pick-up in temperature, the daily consumption of power plants across the country this week is 2.125 million tons, which is significantly higher than that before the festival, and the willingness of power plants to replenish storage has been strengthened. 2) with the support of favorable policies, the demand of non-electricity industry continues to pick up, the operating rate of cement clinker is 55.43%, the cycle-to-cycle ratio is + 3.59 / year-on-year + 2.8 pct, and the operating rates of methanol and urea are 81.38% and 85.52% respectively. 4. In the short term, as the temperature rises, it is expected to spend the summer ahead of time, and the demand for coal reserves will push up the market.JpjbingoWe believe that at the present stage, the coal is in the transitional stage from the off-season to the peak season, considering that the inventory of the power plant is already high and the space is relatively limited, it is difficult to meet the demand for coal power in summer and the expectation of the increase of hydropower output in the near future. the upward momentum of coal prices is slightly insufficient. The current policy continues to be positive, the economic power strengthens the demand of the non-electricity industry, and the superimposed safety supervision of the producing area is still strict, supporting the operation of coal prices at high levels. 5. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand of thermal coal may return to a tight balance in 2024, and there is room for coal prices to rise. 1) according to the latest data from the General Administration of Customs, in April, China imported 45 million tons of coal, with a total of 161 million tons of imported coal from January to April compared with + 9.4% / year-on-year + 11.2%. The increase in demand for coal used in April compared with the same period last year led to an increase in the purchase of imported coal. 2) from January to March, domestic thermal coal output was 908 million tons,-2.6% compared with the same period last year; imported thermal coal was 86 million tons, + 15.8% year-on-year; and supply contracted slightly,-1.2 billion tons /-1.2% compared with the same period last year. 3) the economy continues to recover, and the dominant position of thermal power remains unchanged, with thermal power generating capacity of 1.6028 trillion kilowatt hours from January to March, + 6.6% compared with the same period last year. 4) the overall volume and price of the coal association plan will remain stable in 2024, and the long association coal will play the role of ballast stone to stabilize market supply and demand and coal prices. at the same time, the supply and demand of thermal coal may return to a tight balance in 2024, and there is room for coal prices to rise. Coking coal aspect 1, coking coal aspect, 1) the production area safety supervision maintains the suppression, the coking coal mine mountain maintains the low load production. Mine operation rate 87.08%, weekly ratio + 1.83pct/ year-on-year-12.11pct; coal preparation plant operating rate 64.1%, weekly ratio-2.83pct/ year-on-year-10.2pct. 2) this week, coking coal stocks totaled 17.3 million tons, with a weekly ratio of + 2.85 tons / year-on-year + 8.6%. The replenishment of coking plants and ports is faster, while that of steel mills is more moderate. 2. In terms of coke, 1) the fifth round of coke increase failed to land on schedule, indicating that the profits of steel mills have been obviously squeezed and the game between coke and steel has intensified. 2) the average daily output of coke in steel mills this week is 471200 tons, with a weekly ratio of + 0.13% and a year-on-year ratio of-0.23%. At this stage, production is mainly on demand. 3) Coke inventory is at the bottom, steel mills and ports have appropriate replenishment this week, and replenishment is still expected. This week's coke inventory totaled 8.57 million tons, with a month-on-week ratio of + 2.02% / year-on-year-8.64%. 3. In terms of iron and steel, 1) steel consumption at the end of the peak season is still relatively high, with the consumption of the five major varieties + 4.65% on a weekly basis. 2) the inventory of five major varieties of steel continues to decline, and the inventory pressure is further reduced. (3) the operating rate of blast furnace this week is 81.5%, weekly ratio + 0.9pct/ year-on-year + 0.4pct, daily average hot metal output 2.35 million tons / day, weekly ratio + 1.66% / year-on-year-1.99%. Steel mills are expected to resume production in the short term. 4. In the short term, coal mine accidents may strengthen the situation of mine safety supervision in producing areas, stop production in some mines and disturb the supply of coking coal. Downstream steel supply and demand continue to improve, steel inventory decline superimposed high steel consumption, steel mills continue to resume production, but with the increase in high temperature and rainy weather, consumption expectations have weakened, Nissan hot metal peak may be close, it is expected that the production pace of steel mills will not slow down in the short term, but there is not much room to support the demand for dual coke. At present, the profits of steel mills have been squeezed, the game of coke and steel has intensified, the fifth round of coke rise has been postponed, market sentiment has weakened, and attention has been paid to the downstream consumption situation of steel and the production rhythm of steel mills. 5. In the medium and long term, the supply and demand of coking coal may be further tightened in 2024, and multiple factors support the price of coking coal. 1) from January to March, domestic coking coal output was 110 million tons,-10.8% compared with the same period last year; imported coking coal was 27 million tons, + 19.0% year-on-year; and supply contracted to a certain extent,-9.08 million tons /-6.2% compared with the same period last year. 2) downstream steel demand has sufficient resilience, production control or tightening has been implemented, and demand has shrunk somewhat. From January to March, coke output is-0.5% year-on-year, pig iron output is-2.9% year-on-year, and crude steel output is-1.9% year-on-year. 3) Shanxi coal production turns to stable production and supply, the contraction of coking coal supply may be greater than demand, superimposed by factors such as historical low inventory of double coke, exuberant overseas demand and changes in trade tariff policy, which form a strong support for coking coal prices. It is suggested that attention should be paid to: at present, the tone of coal production is gradually developing towards "stability", the policy emphasizes mine safety production, the situation of safety supervision is becoming stricter, and the expectation of coal supply contraction is enhanced. 1) in the thermal coal sector, pay attention to the opportunity of market capitalization management assessment to promote the valuation repair of central enterprises, and the companies with stable performance, high share of long Association coal and pay attention to dividend returns are concerned: China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal Industry, China Coal Energy. 2) with the continuous development of economy and the rise of superimposed computing power, there is still an opportunity for thermal power with strong power demand, and companies with high flexibility under the boost of demand: Yanzhou Mining Energy and Guanghui Energy. 3) in the coking coal plate, the toughness of steel demand is sufficient, there is a gap between supply and demand under the expected tightening of coking coal supply, and there is some room for replenishment in the low level of double coke inventory. Lu'an Huaneng, Shanxi Coking Coal and Jizhong Energy are concerned by companies with sound performance and sustained high dividends. Risk tips: (1) downstream demand is lower than expected; (2) coal imports are higher than expected; (3) coal output is higher than expected. [disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.
[disclaimer] this article only represents the views of a third party and does not represent the position of Hexun. Investors operate accordingly, at their own risk.