Research on Guangfa Futures
Investment consulting qualificationBunnypokerSecurities Supervision permit [2011] No. 1292 Xu Yidan Z0020017
Today's market: the rising momentum of manganese silicon continues to strengthen today, and the main contract of manganese silicon is up 3% by the end of the day.Bunnypoker.71%, the capacity to increase the volume is extremely strong, and the number of positions increased in intraday trading was once close to 150000 hands. In the spot aspect, most of the early manufacturers closed the offer, and the offer was rare. Some of the offers were concentrated at 8200-8400 yuan / ton, and the downstream transaction follow-up was limited. The downstream steel acceptance price, including tax, has reached 8300 yuan / ton, and the bid price is about 9000 yuan / ton. Manganese ore, Tianjin Port South Africa semi-carbonic acid trading price rose 1 yuan / tonnage to 53-54 yuan / tonnage, Jiapeng block rose 1 yuan / tonnage to 59-60 yuan / tonnage in the morning.
First, manganese ore affects continuous fermentation, and overseas mine quotations have been raised one after another.
At present, the market is still based on the South32 manganese mine shutdown event pricing, overseas mine quotations have been raised since May. In June, Comilog Gabon rose to US $6.90 / tonnage, up US $2 / tonnage from the previous month, South32 semi-carbonic acid rose by US $2.20 / tonnage to US $6.50 / tonnage, Jupiter semi-carbonic acid rose by US $2.35 / tonnage to US $6.30 / tonnage, and UMK semi-carbonic acid rose by US $2 / tonnage to US $6.20 / tonnage.
According to SMM data, there is no significant increase in global manganese ore shipments at present. In the past two weeks, shipments in South Africa have rebounded, Gabon still maintains a low level of shipments, and Australian shipments hover at the bottom, with the exception of Australia, South Africa and Gabon, which still fluctuates in twists and turns, with no obvious increase for the time being. it is expected that the arrival of domestic manganese ore will remain at a low level in the next two weeks. In terms of inventory, Tianjin Port inventory fell slightly by 65000 tons, of which Australian Mine inventory decreased by 74000 tons, and the decline rate of total inventory gradually accelerated.
As the South32 reduced production mine GEMCO mainly produces high-grade ore, the impact on the global supply of high-grade manganese ore is more significant. The gap may be made up to a certain extent by adjusting the proportion of manganese ore in the downstream of manganese ore and issuing additional manganese ore in other areas, but the reduction is difficult to cover completely.
Second, the inventory of manufacturers is accelerated, and the output increases slowly.
At present, the profits of manganese silicon manufacturers have improved compared with the previous period, the immediate profits of Inner Mongolia, Ningxia and other places have been repaired, the operating rate of Yunnan has obviously rebounded under the flood season, there are also signs of resumption of production in Guangxi, and the industry has formed positive feedback to the manganese ore. The inventory elimination of silicon and manganese manufacturers is obviously accelerated, the hedging plate is locked, and the liquidity is limited. Manganese ore dredging volume has rebounded significantly. As of May 10, Tianjin Port manganese ore dredging volume was 381500 tons, including 206800 tons in South Africa, 74000 tons in Australia and 58700 tons in Gabon.
Third, the recovery of hot metal is accelerated, and the positive feedback is continuing.
The recovery of hot metal has accelerated obviously in the past two weeks, and the demand side continues to have positive feedback. The growth rate of hot metal output has accelerated significantly since May, and the average daily hot metal output has returned to about 2.35 million tons, and will continue to be repaired upward. The acceptance price of some steel including tax has reached 8300 yuan / ton, and the bid price is about 9000 yuan / ton. Hegang manganese silicon bidding has been announced, the purchase volume decreased by 4720 tons compared with last month, the first round inquiry price of 7900 yuan / ton, pay attention to the follow-up manganese silicon bidding pricing.
Outlook for the future:
Looking forward to the future, short-term manganese silicon will still be driven by the cost of terminal manganese ore to maintain a strong performance, there is no major contradiction in the fundamentals, and the positive feedback of the industry chain is formed. 09 before the contract limit positions, far-month contracts increased even more, near-month difference began to narrow, or further modify the manganese silicon structure. There is no significant improvement in foreign mine shipments in the short term, and South32 is still planning to repair the damaged infrastructure, with a follow-up focus on manganese ore shipments, trading restrictions and so on.
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