Lee Ferridge, strategist at State Street, saidHardybougle334If the depreciation of the yen against the dollar slows downHardybougle334Japanese officials are likely to tolerate the continued weakness of the yen, even falling to the level of 170 to the dollar.
"if we reach this level in a very slow way for the rest of the year," he said in an interview. "then the Japanese authorities may tolerate the dollar / yen reaching this level."
He took a neutral view on the dollar / yen and said there was a risk of further weakness in the yen because "from a macro point of view, it is difficult to draw any other conclusions."
His baseline forecast is that the currency pair will fluctuate in a range of 150-160 in the coming months.
"I don't see any reason to turn things around and fall sharply," he said. "there is ongoing pressure to intervene."
In previous interventions in 2022, the dollar / yen really began to fall only when US yields fell as the tightening cycle ended.
"if Treasury yields remain at this level and continue to rise, which I think is the risk, then it will put upward pressure on the dollar against the yen."
