ATFX: the importance of the economic data to be released this week from high to low are the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting, the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve of New Zealand, and the April CPI data of the United Kingdom, followed by a detailed interpretation:
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This Thursday, 2.BowfinAt 00: 00, the Fed will release the minutes of its May monetary policy meeting. The minutes of the meeting are very complex, including the development of financial markets and open market operations, a review of the economic environment, discussions in financial markets, views on the current situation and economic prospects, and policy actions of the Committee. Each part of the content is very important to read the full text in order to make a relatively accurate judgment of the Fed's next monetary policy. Although the Fed's interest rate decision in early May did not cut interest rates, and Powell said at a press conference that inflation is still too high and needs to be limited by high interest rates, so the final result of the minutes of this meeting is likely to give a boost to the dollar index. It should be reminded that the US April CPI data released on May 15 are unexpectedly cold, the Fed is expected to cut interest rates, and the bullish effect of the minutes of the meeting may be reduced.
The Federal Reserve of New Zealand will announce the results of its May interest rate decision at 10: 00 on Tuesday, and the market is widely expected to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.5%. At 11:00 on the same day, Chairman Orr of the Federal Reserve of New Zealand will hold a press conference on monetary policy, focusing on the tendency of his position. If Orr mainly mentions that the decline in high inflation tends to ease the stability of the unemployment rate, he will be partial to the hawk and have a higher probability of maintaining a restricted high interest rate.BowfinOn the contrary, if we mainly refer to the downward trend of inflation and the possibility of a rebound in unemployment, we will be partial to the position and increase the probability of interest rate cuts. It should be reminded that for NZDUSD, the dollar index and Fed monetary policy dominate the market, and the interest rate decision of the Federal Reserve of New Zealand will only impact the exchange rate trend in a short period of time. Due to the growing expectations of the Fed to cut interest rates, NZDUSD is more likely to maintain the medium-term bullish trend after being hit by the decision of the Federal Reserve of New Zealand.
At 14:00 on Wednesday, the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will release the UK's core CPI annual rate of 4.2% in April, compared with an expected value of 3.7%, which is expected to fall by 0.5%. Britain's nominal CPI annual rate in April, released at the same time, was 3.2%, compared with an expected value of 2.1%, which is expected to fall 1.1 percentage points. According to the historical trend, the annual rate of core CPI in the UK is declining rapidly, with an average monthly decline in the last 11 months.
0.26 percentage points, the largest drop reached 0.7 percentage points, and the minimum drop was 0%. The market is expected to core CPI annual rate of decline in 0.5 percent, higher than the average, but below the maximum decline, expected to achieve a higher probability. In the last six months, the annual rate of nominal CPI has been relatively stable, with a gap of only 1.4 percentage points between the maximum and the minimum, with a maximum monthly decline of 0.7 percentage points. The market expects a 1.1% drop in nominal CPI, which is too aggressive and may not be fully fulfilled.
ATFX risk reminder, exemption clause, special statement: there are risks in the market, investment should be cautious. The above content only represents the personal views of analysts and does not constitute any operational suggestions. Please do not regard this report as the only reference. Analysts' views are subject to change at different times and are updated without notice.
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